| Crustal Stress Short-Term/Imminent Earthquake Prediction Record (1997) | |||||||||||||||
| Series | Issue | Prediction | Actual Earthquake | Misfit | ESTAPE Score (Accuracy) | ||||||||||
| Yr-No. | Time | Time(To) | Location | Mo | Time(T) | Location | MS | Location Name | D T | D R | D M | PT | PR | PM | P(%) |
| (day) | (Km) | ||||||||||||||
| 97-1 | 1997.3.31 | 1997.4.1? | N39° 31' | 6.7 | 1997.4.11 | N39° 42' | 6.6 | Jiashi, XinJiang | 8 | 20.4 | 0.1 | 91.3 | 95.8 | 95.4 | 94.3 |
| 4.5 | E76° 47' | E76° 48' | |||||||||||||
| 97-2 | 1997.7.3 | 1997.7.4?7.10 | N40° 03' | 4.5 | 0 | ||||||||||
| E116° 18' | |||||||||||||||
| 97-3 | 1997.10.17 | 1997.10.26? | N23° 00' | 7.5 | 1997.11.8 | N35° 12' | 7.5 | Mani, XiZang | 9 | 2100 | 0 | 92.4 | 0 | 100 | 57.7 |
| 11.2 | E101° 48' | E87° 18' | |||||||||||||
| 97-4 | 1997.12.3 | 1997.12.7 | N34° 30' | 6.7 | 1997.12.3 | N35° 18' | 5.3 | Mani, XiZang | 4 | 90.8 | 1.4 | 93.4 | 74.4 | 0 | 57.8 |
| 10 a.m. | E86° 48' | 20 p.m. | E87° 00' | ||||||||||||
| In 1997 the success rate (general evaluation mark is >= 60) of short-imminent earthquake predictions with piezomagnetic crustal stress method is 1/4 = 25.0%, incorrect short-imminent earthquake predictions (general evaluation mark is < 60) is 2/4 = 50.0%, false alarms of short-imminent earthquake predictions (general evaluation mark is 0) is 1/4 = 25.0%. | |||||||||||||||