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Crustal Stress Method
In the 11 years from 1971 to 1981, when
there were more than 100 crustal stress observation stations in China, a
total of 175 short-term and imminent earthquake predictions were made. The
rate of successful
prediction was 33.1% (58 out of
175), the rate of erroneous prediction was 13.7% (24 out of 175), and the
false alarm rate was 53.2% (93 out of 175). During the period from 1982 to 1993, short-term and imminent
earthquake prediction by crustal stress observation was suspended.
In the years from 1994 to 1996, when only
about 20 stations remained working, 4 predictions were made with one
being successful and three false. In
the years from 1997 to 1999, since the Chinese crustal stress
network obtained the financial support of UNGP-IPASD, the number of
stations increased to more than 40. A total of 15 short-term and
imminent earthquake predictions were made. The rate of successful prediction
was 6 out of 15, or 40.0%, the rate of erroneous prediction was the same, at
40.0%, and the false alarm rate was 20.0%
Submitted by: Prof. Huang Xiangning, UNGP-IPASD
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1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
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